College Football 25 simulation: Will Utah prevail in a big matchup with Oklahoma State?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah game against an FBS opponent this season.
Utah is beginning a new era of conference play this weekend with a matchup at Oklahoma State.
Not only is it a contest featuring two ranked schools — Utah is No. 12 and Oklahoma State is No. 14 in the latest Associated Press poll — but the two programs are fighting for the early lead in the Big 12 Conference race.
The victor also will get a critical win on its resume that could be favorable when it comes to deciding the 12-team College Football Playoff participants at the end of the year.
No pressure, right?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game — and it was a nail-biter.
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — in my opinion, passers were completing an unrealistic amount of pass attempts in previous simulations, so I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 75. That helped to create more realistic numbers.
Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented. This week, that made an impact for Utah in particular.
Cam Rising is expected to return at quarterback for Utah from a hand injury, spelling Isaac Wilson after he started against Utah State last week.
Because it’s unclear whether or not linebacker Karene Reid — who missed the Utah State game — will be available, I went ahead and left him in for this week’s game.
There were no significant depth chart changes needed for Oklahoma State.
I also matched up the uniform combos we’ll see in the game, to the best of my knowledge — Utah in an all-white uniform, while Oklahoma State dons an orange helmet, orange jersey and white pants.
The actual score: Utah 38, Utah State 21
College Football 25 simulation final score: Utah 40, Utah State 17
My analysis: The margin of victory was similar between actual game and the simulation, though they came in different ways. In the actual game, Utah fell behind 14-3 before rallying with 25 straight points at one point, while the Utes stormed out to a 21-3 lead in an eventual win in the simulation.
In both versions, Wilson had a solid day in his first collegiate start. In the actual game, the true freshman threw for 239 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. The simulation had him at 229 passing yards and two touchdowns.
Final score: Oklahoma State 12, Utah 6
Key sequences: Utah had two solid chances to take the lead in the fourth quarter, but the Utes couldn’t capitalize either time in Oklahoma State territory.
The Utes’ first drive of the final quarter got them deep into Oklahoma State territory before Rising connected with Money Parks for a 10-yard gain on third and 11 at the Cowboys 30.
Instead of kicking a field goal in what was a 9-3 game, Utah went for it on fourth-and-1 and Micah Bernard was stuffed for a 1-yard loss.
On Oklahoma State’s ensuing possession, Lander Barton came up with a brilliant interception that, after an 8-yard return, set Utah up at the Cowboys 33.
Kuithe caught an 11-yard pass on third and inches to extend that drive, and Rising was roughed on the same play, moving Utah into a first-and-goal situation at the 5.
Rising tried to hit Parks on first and goal, but with tight coverage on him, the Utah receiver couldn’t hold onto the ball. After a run play failed to get into the end zone, Rising was sacked for a 7-yard loss on third down, and Utah was forced to kick a 30-yard Cole Becker field goal to make it 9-6 with 5:35 to play.
While Utah later had a chance to win the game, these two possessions were prime opportunities for the Utes to go ahead in a defensive struggle.
How the simulation transpired: There was a lot of tough defense in this one and no touchdowns.
Utah forced turnovers on each of Oklahoma State’s first two possessions — one an Ollie Gordon fumble that Barton recovered, the other a Nate Ritchie interception — but Utah only turned those takeaways into three points.
On the final play of the first quarter, Utah capped a 34-yard drive — after the Ritchie interception — with a 32-yard Becker field goal.
One issue for Utah all game was third downs — the Utes were just 4 of 13 — and Bernard was stopped for minimal gain on a third and 4 inside the Oklahoma State red zone to force the field goal.
Over the next two quarters, the Cowboys were mostly in control, though neither offense ever really got on fire as both defenses clamped down.
Oklahoma State tied the game with a 49-yard field goal from Logan Ward with 6:10 until halftime.
The Utes had a promising drive late in the first half that appeared as though they could take a halftime lead. Utah went for it on a fourth-and-1 at the OSU 45 with 25 seconds remaining, though, and Rising was sacked for the first time, one of three Cowboy sacks in the game.
Oklahoma State quickly capitalized with a couple quick passes and kicked a short field goal as the half ended to go up 6-3.
The Cowboys then built a 9-3 lead with 4:30 left in the third quarter after a sustained drive.
Unfortunately for Utah, it couldn’t get much going offensively in the third quarter, and that set the scene for the Utes’ two promising drives in the fourth quarter that ended with just three points.
Following Utah’s field goal with 5:35 left to make it a 9-6 game, Oklahoma State again went on a sustained drive — including two third-down conversions — before Ward hit a 50-yard field goal to make it 12-6 with 1:44 to play.
That gave Utah one last chance, but on a day in which offense came at a premium, the Utes couldn’t move the ball past their own 40 before giving it up on downs, and Oklahoma State ran out the clock.
Star players: Barton and Reid were stalwarts on defense for Utah. Reid ended up with a game-high 21 tackles, three tackles for loss and a sack, while Barton had 10 tackles, two tackles for loss, an interception and a fumble recovery.
The Utes’ offense sputtered much of the day, as Rising finished with just 104 yards passing and Bernard had 68 yards rushing, though just a 2.7 yards-per-carry average.
Outside of Kuithe’s 53 receiving yards, the Utes struggled to get the pass game going.
Gordon, last year’s Doak Walker Award winner, ran for 111 yards, though he had a costly fumble, while OSU teammate Brennan Presley had 10 receptions for 135 yards.
The Cowboys’ Alan Bowman threw for 235 yards but was also picked twice and sacked three times.
Key stats: Neither team had much offense going, as Oklahoma State finished with 313 yards, while Utah had 170.
The Cowboys had a slight edge on third downs — converting 5 of 11 to just 4 of 13 for Utah — and that helped them move down the field for a couple of those key field goals.
Oklahoma State also sacked Rising three times, each coming at a critical juncture.
My analysis: Truthfully, this game could go either way — just look at how the betting line has changed throughout the week.
It’s a bit stunning, though, to see how both Utah and Oklahoma State struggled offensively in the simulation — especially the Utes. While I’m anticipating both defenses to play well Saturday, I’d expect more offense — and more points — in the actual game.